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11.08.06

Different Prediction Markets

I came across Stefan Weiss’ entry on prediction markets and followed some of the names that are mentioned in the BusinessWeek articles. I believe that prediction markets will be more present in future, especially for dynamic subjects. The subject I am mostly interested is innovation. I had an interesting talk with the head of technology at Siemens PSE as they implemented a different but similar version of prediction markets (for accessing with technologies are strategically important for PSE).

I already have a draft-versioned businessplan for an alternative (community-based) stock market exchange on my desk. It is based on the idea that a social system — Internet community — can predict stocks more accurate than analysts can.

Besides the links to the BusinessWeek articles (1, 2, 3), the following addresses might be useful:

- NewsFutures: provides software tools for prediction markets
- Consensus Point: provides both software and consulting

Online prediction market platforms:
- Hollywood Stock Exchange
- Intrade
- World Economic Forum’s Global Risk prediction market
- Yahoo! Tech Buzz game

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